Desk Notes2 min read
Why we publish our losses
A hit rate you cannot audit is marketing. The record only means something with the losers left in — so ours stay, permanently.
Every research shop shows you its winners — the brochure calls, the ones that ran. The losers get quietly retired, and what remains is not a record at all. It is an advertisement wearing a record's clothes.
Our track record page lists every call this desk has published: the date, the thesis, the score, the outcome. Wins and losses, permanently. Here is why we hold that line when almost nobody else does.
A record you cannot audit is marketing
Survivorship bias is not a technicality — it is the entire trick. Remove the worst ten calls from any record and mediocrity becomes brilliance. So a hit rate means nothing unless you can see everything that was ever published, with dates, and confirm nothing has been pruned. Wholesale investors are professionals; they know this, which is why a curated highlight reel insults them and a complete record earns them.
Losses are where the method shows
A win can be luck. A loss shows you what a desk actually does under pressure. Was the risk named in advance, in the published bear case, or discovered afterwards? Did the exit follow the stated discipline, or did the thesis quietly mutate to excuse the price? When we lose, members can trace exactly which assumption broke — because the assumptions were written down before the outcome existed. That autopsy is worth more to a serious reader than another victory lap.
The rules that make it real
Three mechanics keep the record honest. Every pick is published with its score and date before the outcome is known. Nothing is edited after publication — corrections are appended, never overwritten. And closed calls stay on the page forever, wins and losses alike, in the same table at the same type size. No asterisks, no memory holes.
What it costs, what it buys
Publishing losses makes our record look worse than any cherry-picker's — permanently, by construction. We accept that trade gladly, because the alternative is asking professionals to trust adjectives. A visible loss column is the one feature no dishonest record can copy, which makes it the cheapest credibility money cannot buy.
The scoreboard stays up whether we like the score or not. That is the whole point of a scoreboard.
General information only — not personal financial advice. Research access is offered to wholesale investors under s708 of the Corporations Act.